Private education in South Africa is “shooting the lights out” – outperforming expectations with much stronger growth, making its success noticeable and impressive. Listed education groups such as Curro, ADvTECH, and STADIO have all reported record growth in learners, revenues, and profits, while simultaneously announcing ambitious expansion plans. Families are increasingly concerned about the quality and reliability of public sector education, which is providing an opportunity for unprecedented demand for private schools across the country.
In 2025, growing concerns among parents have emerged that public-sector education trends have worsened. First, the system’s learning outcomes reveal a stark reality: while the official matric pass rate for the Class of 2024 was 87.3%, only about 51% of the learners who began Grade 1 in 2013 passed matric in 2024, meaning over 590,000 students never completed the system. Furthermore, nearly four in ten learners who enrol in Grade 1 still exit before finishing matric, and the throughput rate from Grade 10 to 12 dropped to just 64.5% in 2024.
Secondly, safety and stability continue to be problematic. A recent MDPI study reports that 68% of teachers and 49% of learners have experienced or witnessed physical violence in schools. This growing sense of insecurity increasingly concerns parents, especially where discipline and infrastructure are already under pressure.
Third, public confidence remains tepid. A recent Afrobarometer survey found that only about half of South Africans give the government a passing grade for its performance in education. Almost half (46%) say that out-of-school children are a frequent problem in their communities, and troublingly, about 9% of respondents report having to pay bribes to access public education services. With constrained budgets and persistent inequality, parents are seeking alternatives that feel more reliable, transparent, and equitable.
This provides a continued opportunity for growth of private schooling. This growth is not just about more schools, but smarter expansion. The challenge lies in identifying the right locations – areas where new campuses will be both accessible to learners and financially sustainable. For companies competing in this booming sector, precision in expansion strategy can be the difference between thriving in a new catchment or facing underutilised facilities.
Data-Driven Planning for South Africa’s Education Future
At GeoScope, we specialise in helping education providers answer precisely these questions. Drawing on our track record of accessibility studies for government and large-scale projects, we apply proven spatial modelling methods that align school infrastructure with current and future learner demand.
Our accessibility modelling uses detailed demographic, socio-economic, and transport data to simulate how learners travel to school and what barriers they face. By combining Greenfield analysis (where to establish entirely new facilities) with Brownfield analysis (optimising existing locations through consolidation or expansion), we provide private education companies with evidence-based strategies for growth.
This approach ensures that every new school is not just built but is built in the right place – maximising accessibility for families, minimising travel burdens, and aligning with long-term enrolment potential. Just as we have helped the government optimise service delivery points, we can apply the same rigorous methodology to the education sector, ensuring expansion plans are both socially impactful and commercially sound.
Harnessing Spatial Intelligence to Drive Smarter, Inclusive School Expansion
Our perspective is shaped by our Building Back Better initiative, developed in response to the need for optimum provision of schools across Africa. That initiative emphasises how school provision must consider two fundamental dimensions: quantity (the number and distribution of schools) and quality (the facilities, teaching, and resources available). Accessibility modelling is critical in addressing both—ensuring that learners, regardless of geography or socio-economic background, have realistic access to quality schooling.
By piloting case studies in cities like Tshwane, we have demonstrated how data-driven approaches can highlight underserved areas, identify optimal sites for new schools, and support education systems in planning for the future. These lessons are directly applicable to South Africa’s private education boom. The same modelling can guide Curro, ADvTECH, and other providers as they expand into new communities—helping them to avoid costly missteps while deepening their social impact.
GeoScope stands at the intersection of education and geospatial intelligence. By harnessing accessibility modelling, we help private education companies:
- Pinpoint demand hotspots where new schools will succeed.
- Model catchment areas to understand current and future learner flows.
- Optimise investment strategies through Greenfield and Brownfield analysis.
- Support inclusivity by identifying gaps in underserved or rapidly growing communities.
South Africa’s private education providers are on a growth trajectory that shows no signs of slowing down. By integrating advanced spatial analysis into their expansion strategies, they can ensure this growth is sustainable, equitable, and profitable.
At GeoScope, we are ready to partner with education leaders to build a future where accessibility meets excellence—one school at a time.
